Saturday, 2 December 2017

Suppose you need $1 million dollars to start your Dream Business

Suppose you need $1 million dollars to start your Dream Business. Research ways to get the money for such a business. Compare two (2) sources of financing you might obtain. (e.g., Small Business Administration (SBA), private investors, private loans, personal assets, and / or personal credit cards.) Identify the risks and benefits of your two (2) choices.
1. [Theory] The 1921 census of Canada is now public. Below is a list of 50 observations of yearly income in downtown Victoria (District 24, Sub-District 1) taken from the census forms. I’ve included only positive incomes – no zeroes. If you’re curious, I’ve used items e002877457 - e002877461. You can access these images directly by typing in
http://central.bac-lac.gc.ca/.item/?app=Census1921&op=img&id=e002877461
and replacing the last two numbers with 57,58,59,60 or (as shown) 61.
IndexYearly IncomeIndexYearly
Income1$10026$1,9002$5027$1,0003$50028$1,7004$1,90029$3105$4,60030$1,5006$2,43231$2407$1,45032$1,4408$40033$2,2509$2034$7510$9503
5$2,30011$5036$96012$1,50037$97013$1,00038$1,76014$1,58039$7515$1,68040$45016$80041$2,00017$1,35042$1,30018$90043$1,28019$1,60044
$1,05020$40045$56021$3,7346$1,44022$1,20047$1,44023$2,16048$79024$2,20049$36025$1,75050$1,610
For this question, you will run very simple Monte Carlo and bootstrap analyses to calculate a cost-acceptability curve and mean value for downtown Victoria. To allow you to do this by hand, we will only be running 10 trials.
a. (1 mark) [Monte Carlo] I’ve calculated the minimum, maximum and average values for the incomes reported. Let’s assume that income follows a normal distribution centred at that average, and that our minimum and maximum values cover 6 standard deviations. Calculate an estimate of the standard deviation by taking the difference between the maximum and minimum and dividing by 6 [(MAX – MIN)/6]:
MINIMUM$20MAXIMUM$4,600AVERAGE$1,248
Estimated Standard Deviation = _______________________
b. (2 marks) Go to random.org’s Gaussian Random Number generator and generate 10 random numbers. Use the average income as the mean, and your answer for part a. as the standard deviation. List the random numbers below.
Gaussian Random Number Generator: https://www.random.org/gaussian-distributions/
To make things more readable, try using 2 significant digits.
Note: 1.2e+3 means 1.2 x 1000 = 1,200, 1.2e+2 = 1.2 x 100 = 120, etc.
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