SCENARIO:
The IMDEX Asia (International Maritime Defense Exhibition and Conference) is held every two years at the Singapore Expo, 1 Expo Drive, Singapore. This year, a Russian delegation proposes to showcase a new patrol boat at IMDEX Asia. A Russian brochure says that the boat is an advanced type of very fast patrol boat, highly maneuverable, and optionally equipped with a new antiship cruise missile. Reportedly the craft has a new hull design that employs stealth technology and a revolutionary propulsion system. The craft was designed by the Almaz Central Marine Design Bureau of St. Petersburg, Russia.
The Russians plan to set up a booth at the exposition with pictures of the boat and the missile. Reportedly, the boat’s designer Sergeiy, and the missile’s designer Valeriy, and the sales representative Viktor will be at the booth during some times of the day. They may also be at the Russian hospitality suite in the Pan Pacific Singapore hotel during the evening. All Russian attendees are staying at the Pan Pacific Singapore Hotel.
The boat itself is anchored in the center of Marina Bay, Singapore harbor, approximately 200 meters from the nearest shore. It has one live-aboard guard, Igor, who reportedly has a propensity for drink. When off-duty, Igor can be found at Harry’s Bar on Boat Quay, a sleazy nightspot that features a live jazz band and jam sessions.
Over the next two days, the boat will be taken out in the Straits of Malacca for a test demonstration of its speed and maneuverability. You have received reports that the Russians plan to use the craft to conduct a live antiship missile firing demonstration for their guests against a dummy target located in the Straits of Malacca. The guests, who will be on board during the test, include representatives of all the potential customer groups (terrorists, narcotics traffickers, and military officers from Indonesia, Pakistan, and the Philippines).
Additional information (COMINT between the development facility in St. Petersburg and their test facility located near Kaspiysk, on the Caspian Sea) has revealed that the craft was tested on the Caspian Sea. A commercial imagery search has located a prototype at coordinates at 42° 52’ 55”N 47° 39’ 24”E.
Analysts in the IC have provided the following top level Customer Needs.
Counterterrorism: Representatives from the terrorist group Al’ Shaitan reportedly are interested in purchasing one of the craft to use for attacks on unspecified targets. An Al’ Shaitan cell is located somewhere in Singapore. Provide information on any contacts between the terrorist group and the Russians. Highest priority is learning Al’ Shaitan’s intended use of the craft, including intended targets. Next priority is on tracing the funding sources for the purchase.
Counternarcotics: Several narcotics trafficking organizations are reportedly interested in the craft as a seaborne delivery platform for their product. Identify any such groups who contact the Russian delegation; their intended use of the platform, to include area of operation; and provide details on purchases made and delivery terms.
Military/Counterproliferation: US DoD and Australian defense representatives have requested any details about planned sales of the craft to Indonesia, Pakistan or the Philippines. Include number of craft sold, terms of sale and planned delivery dates.
Weapons Systems Performance: Provide details on the performance of the patrol craft (top speed, range, maneuverability, logistics support) and of the missiles (sensor type and performance, missile speed, operational profile, intended targets). Provide details on the reported stealth design, its effectiveness, and the hull materials used. Determine the type of propulsion used.
ASSIGNMENT:
Prepare a multi-INT collection plan against all the targets defined above (counterterrorism, counternarcotics, military/counterproliferation, and weapons systems performance).
The plan should follow this format:
• Describe the collection scenario (specific targets, timing, method of collecting),
• Describe the expected payoff, in terms of answers to the four sets of customer needs (counterterrorism, counternarcotics, military/counterproliferation, and weapons systems performance).
• Assess the risks associated with the collection effort.
• Describe the “back end” requirements to support the collected information (e.g., translation of foreign language material; processing and exploitation of technical collection).
Develop a timeline for the use of the assets that you identify in this plan, and describe the communication among collectors that is required for the success of the effort.
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